Bitcoin Rally Reaches Its Risky Level For October


(Photo illustration by Chesnot)

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been on the rise since trading as low as 29,283.97 on July 20. Based upon its September close of 43,438.50 my proprietary analytics shows a risky level for October at 57,814. This level was exceeded in today’s trading. Gapping above its quarterly pivot at 45,713 on October 1 was the catalyst for the upside.

Some analysts on Wall Street say you can’t trade bitcoin. I say if you have a daily and weekly chart plus the levels from my analytics, bitcoin can easily be traded.

The Daily Chart for Bitcoin

Daily Chart for Bitcoin. Courtesy of Refinitiv Xenith.


Bitcoin has been trading above a golden cross since September 16 when the 50-day simple moving average rose above the 200-day simple moving average. The price target for October was this month’s risky level at 57,814. This was exceeded today with a high of 58,523.36. The 50-day SMA is now at 48,211.44 with the 200-day SMA at 44.933.64.

The highest horizontal line is the monthly pivot at 57,814. The second horizontal line at 45,713 is the quarterly pivot. The third horizontal line is the semiannual pivot at 37,815. The bottom horizontal line is the annual value level at 18,892.

The Weekly Chart for Bitcoin

Weekly Chart for Bitcoin. Courtesy of Refinitiv Xenith.


The weekly chart for bitcoin is positive but overbought with crypto above its five-week modified moving average at 49,579.86. It’s well above its 200-week simple moving average or reversion to the mean at 16,304.60. The last time the 200-week SMA was tested was during the week of March 22, 2020, at 5,568.64.

The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic level is rising at 81.83 which makes it overbought with the reading above 80.00. The buy signal occurred during the week of August 8.

Trading Strategy: Buy bitcoin on weakness to its quarterly pivot at 45,713 and reduce holdings at the monthly pivot at 57,814, which was tested today. I am not advising a short position.

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