The market has been strong over the last 2 weeks, rising 4.5%. However, the first week in this sequence was bearish and the entire 2-week period has historically been flat. In this case, the overriding of the seasonal tendency has bullish implications:
- If the market has been up in that period, then the odds are 2 in 3 that the market will close higher 1 week later.
- If the market has been up by more than 2%, then the odds favor the bears by 3 to 1 in 26 cases.
- If the market exceeds 3%, then there have been higher prices in 11 of 12 cases.
The positive effect of this price rise does not dissipate for 4 weeks, which would take us through to the end of July.
The Juniper Networks daily cycle bottoms on July 6th and tops on July 16th. All 13 daily buy signals have been profitable in the last year. The stock has risen in the month of July 61% of the time. The shares are likely to move closer to $29-$30.
Chart 1: Juniper Networks Daily Cycle
Chart 2: Juniper Networks Daily Graph
The M&T Bank daily cycle points up from the 8th through the 19th. All seven buy signals have made money in the last year. The weekly cycle bottoms on the 12th and the monthly cycle turns up on the 5th. July has brought rising prices 64% of the time, most of the strength occurring in the first half of the month. The stock is due to rise to $150 or higher.
Chart 3: M&T Bank Daily Cycle
Chart 4: M&T Bank Daily Graph