Over the last 50 years, seasonality and relative strength have proven valuable in successful portfolio management. Seasonality is very effective with most stocks. For example, Archer Daniels Midland
Tests on the Dow Jones Industrial 30 stocks have been successful. Over the last 30 months, the long stocks have risen by an amount about 50% greater than that of the short sales and 30% over the DJIA.
In June, the long trades returned an average of -4.25% versus a change of -6.71% in the DJIA in comparison to a return of -11.09% for the short sales.
For the month of July, the cycle/relative strength concept is applied to the S&P 500 constituents. First, the S&P 500 stocks with at least 30 years of price data are ranked from the best performer to the worst by calculating the expected return in that month. The top stocks were screened as follows. The top best traditional performers in the month were then screened for relative strength by a unique measure that sorts by several relevant time periods. Those that pass both screens are buys for the month. The stocks that are both weak monthly performers and weak relative performers are short sales for the month.
The screen for the month is presented below showing the top-ranked stocks. This new screen combines the seasonal rank for July in column 2 and the relative strength rank in column 3. The combined rank is in the last column. We can see that Amphenol
Potential Strongest Performers in the S&P Stocks in the Month of July
Potential Weakest Performers in the S&P in the Month of July
Of the strongest, these stocks show strong relative strength and are considered buys for the month:
Regarding the weakest, these stocks show declining relative strength and are suitable short sales: