Stocks This Week: Buy American Express And Analog Devices

Here is the short-term market analysis and two long stock recommendations. The S&P cycles have bottomed. From March 26 to April 11, the S&P has risen 66.3% of the time for an average 17.6% gain or an expected return of 11.7%, the second lowest among the 12 months. Next week is April OPEX week, graphed below. The Monday OPEX has been up 78.5% of the time. The April daily histogram shows that Monday, the 12^th, has been up 80% of the time for a 0.37% gain, the most bullish day of the month. Very short-term cycles are bearish for Monday. The likely resolution will another day of modest gains on Monday followed by higher prices.

The American Express daily cycle is at a low point, signaling higher prices for this week. April has been the strongest month for American Express, up 71.4% of the time for an average gain of 4.8%. The daily cycle buy signals have been correct in all nine signals this year. The stock may challenge $152, a new high.

Chart 1: AXP Daily Cycle

Chart 2: AXP Monthly Histogram

Blue: Average Percentage Change

Red: Probability of a rise on that day

Green: Expected Return (Product of the first 2)

The daily Analog Devices cycle is bottoming and has been correct in all ten cases in the last year. April has been the 4^th strongest month of the year, up 57.1% of the time for an average return of 4.0% and an expected return of 2.3%. The stock appears to be poised to break out of triangle to new highs in the $165-$175 area.  

Chart 3: ADI-Daily Cycle

Chart 4: ADI-Daily Graph

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